--- Log opened Thu Apr 27 00:00:41 2017
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02:21 <@Dagmar> I don't generally animate the dead in my garage
07:12 <@Dolemite> mr0ning, be0tches and h0ez!
07:36  * aestetix hugs Dolemite 
07:47 <@Dolemite> Man, those are some hefty thunderboomers outside
07:50 <@Dolemite> That last one just shook my chair, and no, I didn't fart.
08:44 < aestetix> ok question
08:44 < aestetix> I have two servers..... server A and server B
08:45 < aestetix> scping a large file to server A and to server B is fine
08:45 < aestetix> but copying it between server A and server B is slow as shit
08:45 < aestetix> any suggestions on how to figure out what is going wrong?
08:46 < aestetix> and they are in the same data center
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08:51 <@Mirage> OS?
08:51 <@Mirage> same/differnt vlans?
08:51 <@Mirage> virtual/physical?
08:51 < aestetix> ubuntu
08:51 < aestetix> two physical dedicated systems
08:52 < aestetix> same vlan too
08:52 <@Mirage> mtu?  jumbo enabled on one but not the other?
08:52 <@Mirage> would be first guess.
08:52 < aestetix> let me check
08:53 < aestetix> how do I check mtu
08:53 <@Mirage> ifconfig should show it
08:53 < aestetix> both say MTU:1500
08:55 < aestetix> what I don't get is that it's fine for both when dealing with other systems
08:55 < aestetix> just not with each other
08:55 <@Mirage> open two sessions to each and run tcpdump in them, then try again..see if you are getting a bunch of retransmits or fragments.
08:56 < aestetix> oh that's interesting there's packet loss
08:56 < aestetix> I'm running mtr on them both
08:57 < aestetix> A->B is fine, B->A shows like 4% packet loss
08:57 <@Mirage> and welcome to the world of intelligent network troubleshooting on linux
08:57 <@Mirage> =P
08:57 < aestetix> hah
08:58 <@Mirage> check cabling..could be as simple as a bad cable.
08:59 < aestetix> bingo
08:59 < aestetix> independent system just replicated the packet loss on system B
09:00 <@Mirage> So swap the patch cable on B and try again.
09:00 < aestetix> oh but it just popped up on system A too
09:01 < aestetix> anyways thanks
09:01 <@Mirage> Have your network guys check the switch logs
09:13 < aestetix> or I could just check their status page
09:13 < aestetix> turns out there's a known issue in my data center
09:14 <@Dolemite> Mirage: What's your ETA for Gatlinburg?
09:28 <@dasunt> aestetix: Check the port settings as well.
09:28 <@dasunt> On the switch.
09:34 < aestetix> I don't have access to the switch
09:34 < aestetix> so I'm making logs and sending it to the data center network guys
09:39 <@Mirage> Land in Nashville ~9:30, then drive. 3.5hrs + timezone..so something like 2-3p
09:41 <@Mirage> Reminds me, I need to call and make sure they actually noticed the room location preference note.
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09:52 <@Mirage> Yay, Building 2 again.   w00t
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10:31 <@Evilpig> Mirage: we're aiming to get out of here about 1.  ash has to work and so does NotLarry
10:32 <@Evilpig> i'm gonna go have lunch with notlarry here in a bit and get the rest of the details ironed out
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10:36 <@Mirage> NotWife (aka NotLarry Bullshit Detector)/NotKids coming?
10:38 <@Evilpig> not to my knowledge
10:38 <@Evilpig> he's escaping them
10:43 <@dasunt> That's what he thinks.  But they'll track him down.
10:47 <@Mirage> dasunt: lol..no, they will be enjoying the break.  =)
10:50 <@rattle> Bitcoin just passed $1,337.
10:51 <@Dagmar> Yep
10:51 <@Dagmar> Hell LiteCoin is even worth more than a cup of water now
10:51 <@dasunt> Bitcoin crash soon?
10:52 <@Dagmar> Doubt it
10:52 <@Dagmar> People are watching these "world leaders" and are pretty convinced someone's going to fuck up and throw the economies into spirals of doubt and uncertainty
10:53 <@dasunt> I wouldn't rely on BTC to be a store of value then.
10:53 <@Dagmar> How so?
10:54 <@dasunt> It's volitile.
10:54 <@Dagmar> So is USD
10:54 <@dasunt> Okay, lets put it this way - would you accept your mortgage being paid back in BTC?
10:55 <@Dagmar> Hmm... let's see
10:55 <@Dagmar> If I had a mortgage in BTC it would be paying itself off with just the gains
10:55 <@dasunt> Say you borrow 1000k bitcoin to buy a house.  You need to pay back 5.5 bitcoins per month, to do a quick & dirty estimate.
10:56 <@dasunt> Would you take that loan?
10:56 <@Dagmar> It _certainly_ shows better gains over time than all of my 401k/j plans put together
10:56 <@rattle> BTC is volatile as hell, but it's tracking up, very clearly..
10:56 <@Dagmar> It's been tracking up higher than .5% for as long as my apps can access
10:56 <@rattle> Of all my investments, it's the one that's performing the best over any 3mo period.
10:57 <@dasunt> There's probably some penny stocks that have beaten it over 3mo.
10:57 <@rattle> It's up 25%+ over the past month.  That's no bullshit money.
10:58 <@Dagmar> I'm pretty sure Trump is to "blame" for that
10:58 <@dasunt> I think it fails at being a store of value though.  It has recent high returns, and presumably high risks to go with those returns.
10:58 <@Dagmar> It has long-term decent returns
10:59 <@rattle> My positions over the past year are up roughly 150%.
10:59 <@dasunt> Hmmmm.  I think I'm going to argue that BTC's value is due to economic uncertainty.
10:59 <@Dagmar> Most importantly, no one associated with BitCoin is sending me a little booklet trying to hide the fact that their ten-year projection is a negative number
10:59 <@dasunt> Er, is not due to economic uncertainty.
10:59 <@rattle> I've done some selling and buying to short crashes and squeezed out an additional 10-20%..
10:59 <@Corydon76> dasunt: for Bitcoin to lose its value, people would suddenly need to start having massive confidence in country-derived currencies.  How soon do you think that will happen, given the current administration?
10:59 <@dasunt> Gold's value over the past year seems pretty static, and gold tends to pick up market panic.
11:00 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Why are country-derived currencies the only alternative to BTC?
11:00 <@Corydon76> dasunt: What else is there?
11:00 <@Corydon76> Gold is only valuable due to scarcity
11:01 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Other cryptocurrencies would be one possibility.
11:01 <@Dagmar> Probably because most countries make it illegal for people to make up their own currency
11:01 <@Corydon76> Have you seen what the other cryptocurrencies have been doing, relative to Bitcoin?
11:01 <@rattle> At the beginning of the year, the total bitcoin market capitalization was less than $8b.  Now it's $20b.  Lots of money is rushing in there.  It's going to continue to boom for awhile.
11:01 <@Dagmar> rattle: Why I'm unamused that it takes 4-6 days to get funds into Coinbase/GDAX
11:02 <@Mirage> scarcity and demand..  just because there isn't much of something doesn't mean it's valuable.
11:02 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Oh, look, a time traveler from 2005 just stepped into the room.  He's trying to argue that there's no alternative to Myspace.  :p
11:02 <@Corydon76> dasunt: I'm not arguing over a 20-year span.  I'm saying that over the next 5 years, Bitcoin is a good currency to have.
11:02 <@rattle> I don't suggest doing buys direct from outside banks.  Move the USD in first as USD, then buy/sell from there.
11:03 <@Dagmar> That's what I'm doing, but the wire transfer is still abominably slow
11:03 <@Corydon76> dasunt: there is one good thing about the alternative cryptocurrencies, though:  they're easier to mine than Bitcoin
11:03 <@Corydon76> And since they have an exchange rate with Bitcoin, it's a way to get Bitcoin
11:04 <@Dagmar> I bought four LTC last week just because they were stupid cheap and figured what the hell
11:04 <@dasunt> Corydon76: If we're talking short-term spans like 5 years, I could see BTC beating the market (which should average around a 61% return in 5 years, before inflation).
11:04 <@Dagmar> heh
11:04 <@Corydon76> dasunt: What else is there, other than short term gains, then diversification?
11:05 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Long term gains.
11:05 <@Corydon76> Then after another short term period, you re-diversify
11:05 <@Corydon76> This is the recommended strategy of most individual investment plans
11:05 <@dasunt> Sounds like a risky strategy.
11:05 <@dasunt> High risk can mean high rewards.
11:05 <@Corydon76> No, diversification is a GOOD strategy
11:06 <@dasunt> I mean the chasing teh short term.
11:07 <@Corydon76> dasunt: I have investments in junk bonds right now.  In the short term, they're great.
11:07 <@Corydon76> When cities start missing their tax targets, it's time to get out
11:08 <@dasunt> Well, the proof is in the pudding.  Hope I'm wrong and you retire early from the fortune you make.
11:09 <@Corydon76> dasunt: diversity is the proven best strategy, and every investment advisor who isn't trying to get you to invest in something that makes money for themselves will tell you this
11:10 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Diversity is a good strategy, I agree.  But someone invested in a mix of stocks and bonds is diverse.  So is someone invested in beanie babies, heritage mint collectable coins, cash under the mattress, and antique afghans.
11:10 <@Corydon76> I'm not advocating putting all your money in Bitcoin.  But if you put 10% in Bitcoin, along with 10% in a smattering of other different classed investment vehicles, and you rebalance periodically (quarterly, for example), you get the best combination of risk.
11:11 <@Corydon76> And you avoid single day crashes from tanking your entire worth.
11:13 <@Corydon76> And if I can mine other cryptocurrency for less cost in electricity than the exchange rate would net me in dollars, then it's worth me plugging in the machine and making it go.
11:13 <@Corydon76> That's basically just printing money
11:14 < K`Tetch> 12:04:06 «@Dagmar» I bought four LTC last week just because they were stupid cheap and figured what the hell <-- define 'stupid cheap'?
11:15 <@dasunt> What currencies are still mineable?
11:15 < K`Tetch> dogecoin?
11:15 <@Corydon76> ZCash is mineable
11:16 <@Dagmar> K`Tetch: Under $5.
11:16 <@Dagmar> So... 100% returns!
11:16 <@Dagmar> (on like $40)
11:16 <@dasunt> Speaking of which, I've thought about doing a DIY index of all cryptocurrencies based on market cap.
11:16 <@rattle> Diversity is always important.  I took it in the nuts in my mutual funds and bonds after Trump got elected.  Shit still hasn't recovered yet.
11:17 <@Dagmar> LTC is the penny-stock of cryptocurrencies
11:19 < K`Tetch> https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/
11:19 < PigBot`> Title: All Currencies | CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations (at coinmarketcap.com) http://tinyurl.com/l6opzu3
11:20 <@Mirage> Evilpig: any idea is Oddball is coming?   haven't seen/heard anything out of him in a long time.
11:21 <@Evilpig> I haven't heard anthing. 
11:28 < K`Tetch> hmm, I wonder if I should invest in bluecoin, AND redcoin, and see which does better - a sort of 'redcoin v bluecoin' match...
11:28 <@Dagmar> Depends on if they're cheap enough
11:29 <@Dagmar> Like, if this is an amount of money you'd feel comfortable burning just to see what it smells like, by all means
11:29 <@Dagmar> I had about $20 in USD left that wasn't in BTC or ETH at the moment and LTC was just added, so I figured what the hell
11:29 < K`Tetch> redcoin is $0.000897
11:30 < K`Tetch> bluecoin is $0.000267
11:30 <@Dagmar> Sweet
11:30 < K`Tetch> not getting the roosterteeth reference... priceless
11:30 <@Dagmar> Invest a whole dollah
11:31 <@Corydon76> Invest enough that the transaction fees don't kill your profit when you attempt to cash in
11:32 <@rattle> Is there a particularly good exchange for trading BTC for the various fringe coins?
11:32 <@rattle> NEM, Ripple, etc..  The ones with volume and cap..
11:33 <@Dagmar> GDAX seems to work okay, and it avoids Coinbase's otherwise annoying 1.49% fee
11:33 <@Corydon76> rattle: I think the best strategy is just to pick the best one for any given day.  It's the competition which keeps them honest
11:35 <@dasunt> How would you tell if a particular cryptocurrency is currently over or under-valued?
11:36 <@dasunt> rattle: In regards to making changes in funds and bonds, there was an investment company that once ran an analysis on the most successful long term investors.  Turned out the best ones were either dead or had forgotten about their investment.
11:36 <@Corydon76> dasunt: How would you answer the same question about US dollars?
11:36 <@dasunt> Corydon76: I'd probably say strength of the US economy versus other economies, as well as history of the currency.
11:37 <@Corydon76> The good thing about the value of a cryptocurrency is that any over or under value is instantly corrected by the market
11:37 <@dasunt> Through what mechanism?
11:38 <@Corydon76> Buying and selling of individuals
11:38 <@Corydon76> Trading cryptocurrencies for others
11:39 <@Corydon76> There is no prospect of a country artificially propping up a cryptocurrency
11:39 <@dasunt> Are you claiming a market where people can exchange one good for another good or buy and sell goods is immune to bubbles?
11:40 <@Corydon76> But they're not buying and selling goods.  They're trading in currencies
11:40 <@dasunt> A currency is a form of a good.
11:40 <@Corydon76> Only as far as the IRS is concerned
11:40 <@dasunt> What attribue does a good have that a currency does not have?
11:40 < K`Tetch> usability
11:41 <@dasunt> Goods are usable, currencies are not?
11:41 < K`Tetch> a currency literally only exists just to be a medium of exchange, a middleman
11:41 <@Corydon76> Intrinsic value
11:41 <@dasunt> No such thing as intrinsic value, try again.
11:41 <@Corydon76> A loaf of bread has an intrinsic value.  A dollar does not.
11:43 <@Corydon76> And yes, there is such a thing as intrinsic value.  The measure may vary, but the value does not.
11:43 <@dasunt> I reject it.
11:43 <@dasunt> But do all goods have to have an intrinsic value?
11:43 <@Corydon76> Not all goods, no.  Some goods are indeed like currency
11:44 <@Corydon76> But once a good loses intrinsic value, it's unlikely to ever regain it
11:45 <@Corydon76> Currencies can be worth virtually nothing and gain great value
11:45 <@dasunt> "Unlikely" does not mean it won't.  Therefore, that doesn't exclude currency from being a good either.
11:45 <@Corydon76> For example, how much was a Bitcoin worth in 1988?
11:45 <@dasunt> The artwork of an obscure artist may sell for almost nothing in his life, but a post-death discovery could up its value quite considerably.  Yet artwork is clearly a good.
11:46 <@Corydon76> Collectibles are a different breed entirely from currencies or goods
11:46 <@dasunt> Collectibles are not a good?
11:47 <@Corydon76> They are very much like currencies, in that demand entirely determines their value
11:47 <@Dagmar> It depends on how disgruntled he is
11:47 <@Corydon76> But they are not replicable, like most goods
11:47 <@Corydon76> A loaf of bread, which is produced in bulk is not a collectible, but a consumable good
11:48 <@dasunt> How do you define a "good"?
11:48 <@Corydon76> A unit in commerce with an intrinsic value
11:49 <@dasunt> Now, according to some, intrinsic value is the cost of producing an item.  Which, for BTC, does exist.
11:49 <@Corydon76> I'm sure economists have come up with a more complete definition
11:50 <@dasunt> As does, say, a $10 has an intrinsic value by the same definition (the cost of the cotton paper, the equipment needed, etc).
11:50 <@dasunt> That cost may be a fraction of the cost of the extrinsic value, but it does exist.
11:51 <@Corydon76> dasunt: But you're thinking about paper currency in terms of its physical form.  Most of the dollars in the economy have no physical form
11:52 <@Corydon76> When you spend money on a debit card, nobody is sending physical cash behind the scenes
11:52 <@Corydon76> It's an electronic transaction, and the transfer requires little more electricity than if no transaction was performed.
11:52 <@Corydon76> Negligible
11:53 <@dasunt> Negligible does not mean none.
11:53 < K`Tetch> neligijiggle
11:53 <@Corydon76> It means that for the most part, it cannot be distinguished
11:54 <@dasunt> I therefore argue that sand is not a good, since a grain of sand has a negligible value.
11:54 <@Corydon76> In some systems, it requires NO extra electricity
11:55 <@Corydon76> dasunt: you'd have a good point, then.  The cost of sand is largely born in the cost of transporting it around, not the value of the sand itself.
11:56 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Depends on the sand.  But we could do the same thing with wheat - a grain of wheat has negligible value.  Therefore wheat is not a good.
11:56 <@Corydon76> I don't think a grain of wheat has negligible value, though
11:57 <@dasunt> Hmmmm.
11:57 <@dasunt> Looking at this, the better argument for currency not being a good seems to be defining goods as being consumable.
11:57  * dasunt must think about that theory.
11:58 <@dasunt> Then again, is land consumable?  Not commonly.  Would land be considered a good?
11:59 <@Corydon76> dasunt: there is a difference, though.  It costs the same amount of electricity to transfer a cent as it does to transport a million dollars between electronic accounts.
11:59 < K`Tetch> oh yeah its consumable
11:59 <@Corydon76> If you told me that it cost you the same to transfer a grain of sand as a ton of sand, you'd be sitting on a very profitable transportation method
12:01 <@dasunt> Looks like that's around a 1:1,000,000 differfence.  Is the cost to transfer 1,000,000 bitcoins the same to transfer one BTC?
12:01 <@dasunt> "differ fence".
12:02 <@dasunt> As opposed to a "same fence".
12:02 <@dasunt> :p
12:02 <@Dagmar> That's the theory
12:02 <@Corydon76> Between accounts?  Yes, other than the fees that a third party might charge you for the privilege of them verifying the transaction
12:02 <@Dagmar> Basis is computed very strangely
12:02 <@dasunt> I'm still not seeing how BTC is immune to bubbles, btw.
12:02 <@Dagmar> ANything controlled by humans is subject to bubbles
12:02 <@Corydon76> dasunt: that really depends upon how you define a bubble
12:03 <@dasunt> I'd say overvalued item.
12:03 <@Corydon76> But that depends upon how you define value
12:04 <@Corydon76> You could view the entire housing market from 1945-2017 as a huge bubble, if you think that it's been overvalued this entire time
12:04 <@dasunt> Okay, when the value trend in the long term doesn't accurately predict the value now.
12:05 <@Corydon76> dasunt: But that only works when you can predict the future value
12:05 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Also works in retrospect.
12:05 <@Corydon76> Since bubbles rise gradually, there's rarely a time when the recent past trend didn't predict the current value
12:05 <@dasunt> That's why I suggest the long term.
12:06 <@Corydon76> So you can only define overvalue in the past?  How is that useful for investing?
12:06 <@dasunt> I would say the highest confidence comes from defining overvalued from a future perspective looking backwards.
12:06 <@Corydon76> How do you make a choice for investing if you only know whether that's the right choice 5 years from now?
12:07 <@Corydon76> But that doesn't help you make decisions.
12:07 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Efficient market theory with diversification.
12:07 <@Corydon76> dasunt: which is exactly the same as what I was advocating
12:08 <@dasunt> And with long term trends correlating with future long term worth.
12:08 <@Corydon76> So, "safe" investments.
12:08 <@Corydon76> You have low tolerance for risk.
12:09 <@dasunt> One could try other methods - trying to find a benchmark to peg the long-term value of a good against (like inflation-adjusted price per square foot for houses), and see if the market is deviating from that.
12:09 <@Corydon76> That's fine, although it also means you greatly diminish your prospect for retiring early
12:09 <@Corydon76> You can accept some risk with diversification, though
12:10 <@dasunt> Corydon76: Well, one has to look at just the stock market and figure it's pretty good at doubling the money every 7 years.  That's not a bad benchmark to use.
12:10 <@Corydon76> And accepting some risk can lead to greater rewards
12:10 <@dasunt> You are brushing up against modern portfolio theory, btw.
12:11 <@dasunt> Which is about maximizing returns while minimizing the level of acceptible risk.
12:11 <@Corydon76> Which is precisely what I was advocating
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12:15 <@dasunt> Yes, but diversification itself isn't proof against risk.
12:16 <@Corydon76> Nothing is proof against risk.  That's precisely what risk is.
12:18 <@Corydon76> I buy insurance with the assumption that the insurance company won't go belly up.  The US insures the home insurance market, but that assumes the US remains a viable government.
12:18 <@Corydon76> Diversification is a method for managing risk
12:24 <@dasunt> But not all risk is the same.
12:25 <@dasunt> There's risk in buying lottery tickets.  There's also a large reward in buying lottery tickets.  But the reward doesn't outweigh the risk.
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12:57 < K`Tetch> tornado sirns, see you later
13:00 <@dasunt> K`Tetch: Don't die.
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14:34 < K`Tetch> oh yeah, and the National weather service radar is down to mid-may. apparantly today, they found the rotating gear is "fucked" (a technical term, apparantly)
15:22 <@dasunt> Simple solution - cancel all weather events until mid-May.
15:37 < K`Tetch> what a time to have it go down though, 2 hours before i get a tornado warning (tornado fizzled out about 5 miles south of me)
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--- Log closed Fri Apr 28 00:00:43 2017